Magma recharge patterns control eruption styles and magnitudes at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)

Abstract Diffusion chronometry has produced petrological evidence that magma recharge in mafic to intermediate systems can trigger volcanic eruptions within weeks months. However, less is known about longer-term frequencies and durations priming reservoirs for eruptions. We use Fe-Mg diffusion modeling orthopyroxene show the duration, frequency, timing of pre-eruptive at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico) vary systematically with eruption style magnitude. Effusive are preceded by 9–13 yr increased activity, compared 15–100 explosive Explosive also record a higher number individual episodes plumbing system. The largest further distinguished an ~1 hiatus directly prior eruption. Our results offer valuable context interpretation ongoing activity Popocatépetl, seeking similar correlations other arc volcanoes may advance forecasting including constraints on potential size style.